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Chances of an Earthquake
The chances of a moderate to large earthquake
depend on the seismicity of the region. The West Coast is the most
active region in the United States for earthquakes since it is where
two the Earth's tectonic plates collide, the Pacific Plate and the
North American Plate. However, this does not mean the other parts
of the country do not experience earthquakes. The largest earthquake
recorded in North America took place on the New Madrid Fault in
Missouri in 1811. The South Carolina region has also experienced
significant earthquakes in the past hundred years.
The time between earthquakes is also important
in determining the magnitude of an earthquake. The longer the forces
build up along a fault, the more energy it will release when the
fault ruptures, creating a larger earthquake. Recent building codes
have required buildings to be life-safe from forces generated from
an earthquake with an approximate return period of 500 years.
Risks to Life-Safety
The greatest risk from an earthquake is that
to life safety. In past earthquakes, many buildings have collapsed,
killing thousands of people. Modern building code requirements are
set with the intent of protecting life-safety. The building may
be damaged beyond repair, but the building has not collapsed, allowing
safe evacuation, and the overall risk of life-threatening injury
is low.
The problem today is that many buildings were designed and constructed before modern seismic codes were enacted. Therefore, there is still significant risk to life safety in the event of a major earthquake. Some types of buildings are more susceptible to collapse than others, with old, unreinforced masonry buildings being one of the more vulnerable.
Risks to Property Damage
Traditional seismic codes have focused on ensuring
a life safe performance and offered some expectation that the damage
would be repairable. However, in recent moderate and large earthquakes,
while modern buildings have performed as designed, the damage to
some of the structures have been irreparable or too costly to repair.
Economic losses due to property damage have been extensive in recent
years and have led to the development of new performance-based methodologies
with the intent on controlling property damage and losses.
Risks to Business Interruption
Another economic factor in assessing damage
following earthquakes is the risk of business interruption. Most
of the revenue generated by companies is related to the products
and services they provide to the public, rather than the physical
assets of the company. Any significant interruption to the production
of these goods and services can have an adverse affect on companies,
including putting them out of business. Technology companies in
the Silicon Valley are just such a sector where business interruption
is a critical issue. The recent performance-based guidelines developed
by the structural engineering community focus on the design of new
structures and strengthening of existing buildings with the intent
of minimizing business interruption.
The healthcare services industry is another
sector where continued operation following an earthquake is critical.
Recent legislation enacted by the State of California has required
that hospital acute care facilities must upgrade their buildings
to be operational following a major earthquake by the year 2030.
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